NFL Super Bowl Prediction

Well, it all comes down to this. Months of predicting every game in the regular and post season and now there's just one game left (I won't bother with the Pro Bowl). I have to admit a measure of relief. Some weeks it was quite tiresome to write about each and every game. On the other hand, looking back I can chuckle at the doozies (my prediction that the Falcon defense would stuff the Chief running game is a classic) and pat myself on the back for those times when I totally nailed it. As tiresome as it was at times, I will do it again next season.

Onto this week.

Eagles vs. Patriots
This is the Super Bowl matchup I and most others have been expecting most of the season. As I wrote before, it is a matchup of the best in the NFC against the best in the AFC. The two teams are well matched and similar. Both are balanced between offense and defense, and feature defensive coordinators who are masters at devising schemes. As has been noted throughout the season, the AFC has usually triumphed this year in interconference play. Anyone who has read this blog, in particular my recent argument that the 2004 Patriots would beat the 90's era Cowboys, probably already knows I'm going with New England in this game. Let me break down why.

• Experience. I know this is somewhat overrated, but the Patriots are clearly the experienced team. They won the Super Bowl last year, and most of the leading players on this year's team were part of last year's. Over 40 players on the Patriot roster have Super Bowl rings, compared to only a few for the Eagles. I am only aware of one key player in Philadelphia who has won a Super Bowl: Dorsey Levens. Javon Kearse was with Tennessee in 1999 when they lost to St. Louis in Super Bowl 34. Advantage: New England.
  
• Offense. The Patriots have the fourth highest scoring offense in the NFL, and are at full strength on that side of the ball. They have gone against a slew of tough defenses all year, and in the playoffs, and have come out on top. The Eagles have a pretty good offense too, but their star receiver has a broken leg and another star, Chad Lewis, was lost in the NFC title game. Yes, T.O. looks like he's going to play, but I cannot believe he will be at full strength. So the Eagle offense will challenge the injury-riddled Patriot secondary with Todd Pinkston and Freddie Mitchell, who is best known for his mouth rather than his play. If that secondary could handle Manning and his receivers, I can't see these guys making much of a dent. Advantage: New England.
  
• Defense. Both teams feature outstanding defenses. The Eagle defensive front shut down Atlanta's running game in the NFC title game, and three of it four starters in the secondary are headed to the Pro Bowl. The Patriots, though beat up, have stood up against some of the best offenses in the league and taken them down. I cannot see too much of an advantage here for either team, except that the Patriots have faced more good offenses over the course of the season than the Eagles have, so they are better tested. In the end, this has to be a draw.
• Special Teams. Is there a better clutch kicker than Adam Vinatieri? This is where experience comes in. Vinatieri has been there twice, making clutch kicks to win Super Bowls, whereas Akers has not. The Patriots lead the league in field goal percentage during the regular season. Advantage: New England.
• Coaching. Both teams have great coaching staffs. New England's has more rings, but Andy Reid was with the Packers when they were going to Super Bowl in the 90's, so he's not exactly a virgin. I'll give a slight edge here to the Patriots, because of experience and because I think Romeo Crennel is a slightly better planner than Jim Johnson. Brian Baldinger recently compared the two teams in terms of fundamentals, concluding, "The Patriots are masters of the basics." That is a reflection of coaching. Advantage: New England.

Let us break down the game this way.

• Patriot offense against Eagle defense. This is the high profile matchup. The Eagles are still primarily a defensive team, and the Patriots have become an offensive power. The Patriots can run so many different offenses that no one has effectively stopped their offense. New England only had one game all season where they put up under 21 points. On the other side, the Eagle defense was among the league leaders in terms of points allowed, only giving up 21 or more points four times, and one of those was when they were playing their backups. Excepting that season-ending meaningless Bengal game, the Eagles haven't given up 21 or more points since mid-November, and they won that game (Dallas) in a blowout. It must be said that the Eagles did not face too many top offenses during the season. Apart from the Vikings (twice), Packers, and Steelers, no opponent's offense stands out. The Patriots have faced many good defenses and scored. They are just too adaptable. Advantage: New England.
• Eagle offense against Patriot defense. The game will come down to this matchup. Can the Eagles score or will the Patriots shut them down? The Eagles had a mixed record during the season against good defenses. Against the Steelers, they only mustered a field goal. Against the Ravens, they only mustered one touchdown and three more field goals. Against the Redskins, on the other hand, they averaged 22.5 points per game and McNabb threw five touchdown passes (but only one in the second game). Philadelphia's downfall in the previous NFC title games was their offense's inability to score touchdowns against good defenses. Against the Patriots, the Eagles will need those touchdowns. Field goals won't get it done. New England's defense is well known for its ability to shut down opposing offenses, even the best. On the other hand, they also gave up 28 points to the Bengals and 29 to the Dolphins in consecutive weeks. But history overall gives the advantage here to New England as well.

In the end, the AFC has just been too good this year. The Eagles may be the best team in the NFC, but I don't think they would crack the top three in the AFC. They are too inexperienced and overmatched. Prediction: Patriots.

Regular Season: 158-98
Post Season: 8-2